Inside The Chart: Georgia Tech vs. North Carolina

By Andy Demetra | Voice of the Yellow Jackets

Cassell Coliseum remains a cursed place for Georgia Tech, but don’t pin the Yellow Jackets’ latest loss to Virginia Tech on shabby defense.

They may have moved to 2-13 all-time in Blacksburg after a furious rally fell short in the final seconds Tuesday. But Georgia Tech (11-10, 2-6 ACC) limited the Hokies to 33.8% field goal shooting, their lowest percentage in series history at Cassell Coliseum.

It can be hard to gain inertia coming out of a loss, but that defensive performance – “elite,” in the words of Damon Stoudamire – comes at an opportune time for Tech, which now faces one of the more potent teams in the ACC in No. 16 North Carolina (16-4, 4-3 ACC) at McCamish Pavilion. The Tar Heels lead the ACC in scoring in conference play and rank second nationally in offensive efficiency since January 3.

Can a White Out crowd be enough to subdue a white-hot offensive team in Atlanta? Enjoy the top notes from my chart as the Yellow Jackets look for a signature win over the Tar Heels (2:00 p.m. ET, Georgia Tech Sports Network).

(P.S. When Georgia Tech upset a ranked North Carolina team at McCamish Pavilion two years ago, that also followed a road loss to Virginia Tech.)

---

North Carolina has had its enigmatic moments, going 1-3 in ACC road games this year, though the Tar Heels delivered a statement last Saturday when they overcame a 16-point deficit to snap No. 14 Virginia’s 10-0 record at John Paul Jones Arena.

Once an area of weakness, UNC now boasts one of the more talented frontcourt tandems in the country in 6-10 freshman Caleb Wilson (19.9 ppg, 10.1 rpg) and 7-0 Arizona transfer Henri Veesaar (16.6 ppg, 8.8 rpg). An Atlanta native, Wilson is an explosive athlete who prowls at the foul line and long posts, where he’s a dynamic second leaper and a predator attacking the baseline. Veesaar gives the Tar Heels an inside-out threat with his screening, passing and three-point ability (team-high 47.3% 3pt.%).

In the backcourt, veteran Seth Trimble (14.2 ppg) is a physical, right-handed, straight line driver who led North Carolina with 19 points in a win over Tech last season. The Tar Heels have also inserted freshman Derek Dixon into the starting lineup at point guard, which seems to have revved up their ball movement and pacing – Carolina has outscored its last three opponents 34-12 in fast break points.

Among the keys for Saturday: Don’t allow transition and early offense looks, deny offensive rebounds, and force North Carolina into its second and third action in the halfcourt. Also, while it may merit a “different years, different players” disclaimer, consider this. Last year, Georgia Tech held North Carolina to its lowest efficiency rating of the season. The year before, Tech held UNC to its third-lowest rating of the season.

 

UNC – Points Per Possession vs. Georgia Tech
Year                                   PPP                      Season Rank
2024-25                             0.89                     Lowest
2023-24                             0.99                     Third Lowest

Jaeden Mustaf recorded his second double-double of the season at Virginia Tech. (photo by Grayson Rosen)

 

Jaeden Mustaf recorded his second double-double of the season Tuesday, posting a career-high 11 rebounds and an ACC career-high 16 points against Virginia Tech. The sophomore comes in to Saturday’s matchup with a somewhat fractured family tree – his Dad’s family is originally from Whiteville, N.C., and one of his aunts has worked as an usher at the Smith Center since the 1980’s.

Every team has different size, strengths and schemes. But keep this in mind:

North Carolina ranks 26th in the nation in field goal percentage defense (39.9%).

Georgia Tech has faced two teams this year that rank higher.

The Yellow Jackets shot 57.9% and 53.7% in those games, their highest and third-highest shooting percentages of the season.

 

FG% Defense

NCAA Rank         Team                  FG% def.             Georgia Tech FG%
9. Duke                   38.8%                  53.7%
10. Marist                 39.2%                  57.9%

North Carolina has weathered some inconsistent bouts of defense this year, but there’s no denying a near-top 25 ranking in field goal defense.

Georgia Tech may get a reprieve in one area, though: UNC ranks 344th nationally in Turnover Rate Defense, forcing a turnover on just 13.8% of opponents’ possessions. Among the Yellow Jackets’ opponents, only Mississippi State ranks lower. Even head coach Hubert Davis acknowledged, “We’re not a team that forces a lot of turnovers,” though the Tar Heels outscored Virginia 19-2 in points off turnovers last Saturday.

North Carolina did a good job jamming up Tech’s initial ball screen action last year, but ball screen defense has cost UNC in several of its losses. With the Tar Heels’ length and athleticism, the Jackets will need to make decisive reads off screens and force North Carolina to chase. Trimble in particular can be a cagey perimeter defender.

One barometer worth watching: Opponents have made more threes than North Carolina in four games this year. The Tar Heels lost all four of them. After missing their final 14 threes against Virginia Tech, can Georgia Tech rediscover its stroke on Saturday? North Carolina ranks last in the ACC in three-point defense in conference play (41.3%).

---

North Carolina overcame a season-low 7 points from Veesaar against Virginia thanks to a season-high 17 points from 6-10 junior Jarin Stevenson. His father, Jarod, played collegiately at Richmond before a 20-year overseas career that included a stint on the South Korean national team. Stevenson scored a team-high 24 points for the Spiders in their upset of three-seed South Carolina (coached by former UNC player and assistant Eddie Fogler) in the first round of the 1998 NCAA Tournament.

As a freshman at Richmond, though, Stevenson fell 95-68 to Arizona in the Fiesta Bowl Classic, a game that featured a team-high 19 points and 9 assists from… Damon Stoudamire.

 

---

Now that we’re prepared, we hope you are as well. Join us for pregame coverage starting with the “Ramblin’ Wreck Tipoff Show” at 1:30 p.m. ET on the Georgia Tech Sports Network. See you at McCamish.

-AD-